THE boxes are sealed, the polling stations are still, the tallymen are sharpening their pencils and the excitement is mounting at a ferocious rate. It’s all over bar the counting. And probably a lot of shouting.
Given that it can affect people’s livelihoods, predicting the outcome of elections is an extremely hazardous and difficult exercise, based more on gut feeling and anecdotal soundings than exact science. But, in Kerry, with the last vote now cast, all eve of count indications point to one outcome that would have appeared absolutely ludicrous a few short weeks ago: it’s shaping up to be the day of the Raes.
Even though the findings of the only published opinion poll conducted in Kerry had Danny Healy-Rae at just four per cent of the vote and with only an outside chance of taking the fifth and final seat, the groundswell of support for the older of the two brothers from Kilgarvan in the past 10 days has been quite remarkable.
Voters that had been loyal to the mainstream political parties all their adult lives, like their fathers before them, and their fathers’ fathers, have openly divulged that they are supporting the Healy-Raes on this occasion. And they’re not alone.
They like their work ethic. A phone call has never gone unanswered. They give it everything they’ve got. They’re of the people; they’re for the people. That’s the public perception and it’s as good as anybody seems to want.
And with the 6,400 first preference votes accumulated by Independent Tom Fleming five years ago to be snapped up, the fact than Michael Gleeson opted out, and Micheál Martin, quite bizarrely, not brave enough or wise enough to add a Killarney candidate, it only augurs well for the wily political brothers.
Young voters, many making a scratch on a ballot paper for the first time, appear to have been particularly taken by the colourful bandwagon from Kilgarvan as it toured the local pubs and nightclubs to appeal for support.
That tactic worked a dream for Jackie Healy-Rae in 1997. And it would appear that it’s doing likewise for his two boys close on two decades later.
Many residents in one large housing development in Killarney have observed that no Fine Gael candidate called to their doors, there was no trace of a Labour canvasser, John Brassil was the only Fianna Fail candidate to touch base, Martin Ferris was nowhere to be seen and the lesser known Independents were as scarce as a necktie in Mick Wallace’s wardrobe.
Killarney anti water charges campaigner Kevin Murphy was one of the few that came looking for support. Danny Healy-Rae knocked on every door. And Michael Healy-Rae was first out of the traps and spent an entire night there, discussing issues of concern, outlining his priorities, enquiring how the young lad was getting on in college and greeting almost everybody that answered the door by their first name.
That the younger Healy-Rae will top the poll in Kerry is not in any doubt. No debate. And, at this stage, it would come as quite a shock if Danny isn’t in the passenger seat beside him when he heads for Dáil Éireann.
There is growing speculation across the political divide that Danny could be the second candidate elected; a massive chunk of Michael’s anticipated surplus seeing him past the post. One wonders, at this late stage, though, what odds a bookie would offer on both Healy-Raes making it on the first count? One certainly wouldn’t be able to book world cruise with the winnings alone. Stranger things have happened.
Fine Gael will take a seat. Whether it’s veteran campaigner Jimmy Deenihan or the affable Brendan Griffin that does so is the big question.
Deenihan polled a massive 12,300 first preferences in 2011 but one wonders how much of that could be attributed to gross mismanagement on the part of Fianna Fail as opposed to the strength of the Fine Gael organisation in Kerry North?
Down south, back then, Griffin registered 8,800 number ones and, with Grace O’Donnell likely to bow out early this time, it remains to be seen which one of the sitting FG TDs will hold on.
It could be both, of course. But that’s highly unlikely. And given his experience and his past record in dragging out the big vote when most needed, the odds have to weigh heavily on the side of the former corner back from Finuge whose election advertising, amusingly, is still dwelling on his footballing career a full three and a half decades after he won his last Celtic cross. In Kerry, politics is still a considerable distance behind the GAA.
Arthur Spring is in trouble. And he knows it. It will be a miracle of water into wine proportions if he manages to retain his seat, particularly with the backlash against Labour nationally and the fact that even some of those that have been actively campaigning on his behalf have quietly conceded that a return to the private sector beckons for the likeable Tralee politician such is the allergic reaction caused by Joan Burton’s red rose.
Fianna Fail can confidently expect to win back one of the two seats lost by Tom McEllistrim and John O’Donoghue – in the hall he helped build – in 2011. Privately, party strategists have always insisted that John Brassil was the clear frontrunner, having been endorsed at convention, and they fully expect the Ballyheigue pharmacist not only to conquer Kerry but to rise through the party ranks at a national level, whether that’s in power or in opposition.
Norma Moriarty, to her credit, has been an impressive candidate since she joined the ticket and if hard work and a strong canvass were barometers of electoral success, she could look forward to being carried shoulder high from the Killarney sports and leisure centre on Saturday or Sunday night.
Her cause was helped considerably by having such popular personalities as Maurice Fitzgerald and Mick O’Dwyer by her side but she is likely to be trailing Brassil after the first count and that will be telling as the day progresses.
And what of Martin Ferris? The TG4 poll had him trailing at just seven per cent but while it made for dramatic headlines, nobody really believed that the high-profile Sinn Fein TD could be as low as that, particularly with an anticipated swing to the party nationally. Ferris, who had over 9,200 first preferences in 2011, is likely to claw out another strong vote from the greater Tralee area and although he could not in any way be described as transfer friendly, he might just squeeze enough support to get him there, possibly in the last count. Although it’s far from a certainty. And Fine Gael will be right in his rear-view mirror.
That final seat could be the really intriguing aspect of Election 2016 in Kerry. If Ferris can’t grab it, it is most likely to revert back to Enda Kenny’s team for whom two out of five would be an astonishing performance given the national mood.
What it boils down to, as we see it, is that there are likely to be six candidates in contention for five seats and the only real certainty is that Johnny Healy-Rae is likely to be looking for something a little stronger than milk for his tea when the celebrations get going on Saturday night.
Prediction: Michael Healy-Rae, Danny Healy-Rae, Jimmy Deenihan, John Brassil, Martin Ferris.
